Obama Wins Michigan
In a close race, President Barack Obama came through with the win with a larger margin than expected in Michigan. Obama took the win with almost an eight point lead over Romney. On Nov. 5, the Real Clear Politics poll showed Obama with a five point lead.
Throughout the campaign, Michigan was leaning Democratic, but toward the end Romney was creeping up on Obama and tightening the gap. In the end Obama took Michigan and its 16 electoral votes.
Obama Predicted to take Michigan
Though Michigan remains in a statistical tie, the Real Clear Politics poll shows President Barack Obama with a slight three point lead. Coming into the final days of the elections, it looks like Obama will win Michigan.
Michigan has a history of not only voting for Obama, but also a strong history of voting Democrat. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate since the 1992 elections, and it looks like this trend will continue into the 2012 elections.
The Predictions Are In: Obama is the Favorite
Most members of the Bona Swing staff have predicted President Barack Obama as the winner of their states. In most state poll,s Obama has been showing a slight lead. Though Romney tightened the gap after the debates, Obama managed to keep his lead throughout the campaigning.
Obama is predicted to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Romney is only predicted to win Iowa.
Obama’s strongest lead is expected to be in Pennsylvania where he has kept a strong lead throughout the campaign. “FiveThirtyEight” calculated President Obama having a 97 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.
Though Romney tried to sway Wisconsin toward his campaign by bringing in Rep. Paul Ryan and Romney’s performance in the debates strengthened his position in the polls, Obama remains in a narrow lead in the Wisconsin polls.
In Nevada O,bama is depending on the Hispanic to keep his lead in the polls. With only a two point lead the win is not guaranteed, but the Hispanic population is predicted to vote for Obama.
Florida is the key swing state with 29 electoral votes. The prediction going into the elections is that Obama will win Florida, but the lack of representation of minorities in the polls could sway the outcome.
Though New Hampshire only holds four electoral votes Obama has focused a lot of his time and money on the state. He has held five events there and outspent Romney by about four million dollars on ads. The effort Obama has put into winning the state is showing as he is predicted to take New Hampshire.
North Carolina looks to once again be swinging Democratic with a second win for Obama in this state. North Carolina had not voted Democratic in an election since former President Jimmy Carter, but it looks as though Obama will take his second win over North Carolina in this year’s election.
Iowa is the one swing state where Romney looks to have a slight lead. The Des Moines Register has endorsed Romney speaking for many residents of Iowa who are not satisfied with what Obama has done to help the economy.
Out of all the swing states only one looks to be in favor of Romney, while the others show Obama in a slight lead. Coming into the final days of the elections voters need to keep in mind that anything under a six point lead is technically a statistical tie. Most of the swing states polls remain in statistical ties between the two candidates, but most of the polls show the statistics are leaning towards Obama winning most of the swing states.
Only A Few Candidate Appearances in Michigan
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the latest candidate to be spotted in Michigan in late August 2012. After choosing running mate Paul Ryan, the two went to Romney’s home state to host a rally in Oakland County. It was Romney’s first stop in Michigan since June 2012.
Obama has had less exposure in Michigan having only two major visits at the University of Michigan. The last one was days after his State of the Union Address. At these events he pushed his dedication to education. Later in April President Obama visited Michigan again for a fundraising trip and in late August Vice President Joe Biden was sent to speak at Detroit Renaissance High School.
Michigan Slowly Shifting from Democrats
Another important race Michigan is the race for the Senate seat.
The incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow leads against Republican Pete Hoekstra by 15.6 points in the polls, but her approval rate among voters is in the 40s according to the Real Clear Politics polls and race analysis.
The analysis also points out that in the 2010 Senate elections Republican Rick Snyder by a 19-point lead. Republicans also won Nicole Y. Gagenin the state legislatures. Though Michigan in the 2000 and 2006 elections showed to be strongly Democratic, now there is a shift towards Republican candidates. This also looks to effect the presidential election now that the state is leaning more towards Republican candidates.
Auto Industry Ads Hit Home in Michigan
Although President Barack Obama has dropped another point in Michigan on the Real Clear Politics poll, he is not focusing much attention on the state.
While both parties created ads attacking the other’s approach to the failing auto industry, neither ad was focused on Michigan, both were focused on Ohio.
Romney’s ad attacks Obama for outsourcing jobs and companies, while Obama’s ad attacks Romney for wanting to allow the auto industries to go bankrupt. This once again shows that their focus on Ohio’s connection to the auto industry is also going to affect Michigan.
At this point in the campaign most ads are focused at the Ohio and Florida the swing states with the most electoral votes. But Michigan has the third largest amount of electoral votes of the swing states and was also affected by the collapse of the auto industry. Though the money for advertisements is not being focused on Michigan the accusations being made in the ads have a large effect on how Michigan will vote.
Michigan Newspapers Swing Both Ways
Looking at the list of newspaper endorsements, the newspapers in Michigan look to be as undecided as the state.
In the list of the top 100 newspapers in the country on The American Presidency Project’s website, the Detroit Free Press has published that it once again is endorsing Barack Obama, while The Detroit News is endorsing Mitt Romney after also endorsing McCain in the 2008 elections.
With the Real Clear Politics showing Obama still in a tight four point lead, Michigan looks like it will head into Election Day at a statistical tie.
Michigan Reclaiming its Battleground Status
Obama has fallen another point today on the Real Clear Politics polls bringing the race closer in a state that was thought to be predominantly Democratic. A recent polling done by Foster McCollum and White Baydoun shows that Romney and Obama are tied in the state of Michigan. Michigan has the potential to be an important battleground state if Obama’s current decline continues. The state holds 16 very important electoral votes that earlier in the campaign seemed to be secured by the Democrats, but in these last few days of campaigning it looks like Romney is closing the gap.
Romney’s Auto Industry Plan Revised
Throughout the election Michigan has favored Obama, one of the major reasons being his successful bailout of the auto industry.
The misconception of many voters is while Detroit was going bankrupt Mitt Romney decided that there would be no more government bailouts of companies. John Marshall of TalkingPointMemo.com reiterates the fact that this is what is holding Romney back — and not only in Michigan, but also in Ohio.
In the column Marshall directs readers to Sam Stein’s article in the Huffington Post, where he corrects the misconception most voters have of Romney’s plans for the auto industry. Romney’s plan was not to allow the companies to fail and take down other dependent companies with them. Romney’s plan was to allow them to file bankruptcy and go through the process to allow them to restructure the company to make them more competitive with foreign auto companies.
Michigan: Is It Still A Battleground?
Michigan looks to be out of the race for the title of a battleground state.
Though the Real Clear Politics poll is keeping Michigan in consideration on the battleground polls, the presidential candidates are focusing their final campaign strategies in other directions.
Both campaigns have narrowed the battleground states down to the final seven, with Michigan not making the cut. Obama seems confident in his place in Michigan though his numbers have dropped drastically in the past week, while Romney is hoping that his hometown advantage will keep him in the race.
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